(Updated as on 20th Aug 2020 4.45pm)
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
Coronavirus Cases:
22,610,749
Deaths:
791,670
Recovered:
15,326,490
ACTIVE CASES
6,492,589
Currently Infected Patients
6,430,870 (99%)
in Mild Condition
61,719 (1%)
Serious or Critical
Jan 22Feb 10Feb 29Mar
19Apr 07Apr 26May 15Jun 03Jun 22Jul 11Jul 30Aug 1805M10M
CLOSED CASES
16,118,160
Cases which had an outcome:
15,326,490 (95%)
Recovered / Discharged
791,670 (5%)
Deaths
Feb 02May 02Jul 31Feb
20Mar 09Mar 27Apr 14May 20Jun 07Jun 25Jul 13Aug 180%100%
COVID-19 CORONAVIRUS PANDEMIC
Last updated: April 01, 2020, 16:19
GMT
Coronavirus Cases:
894,027
Deaths:
45,050
Recovered:
189,470
Coronavirus News Live Updates (April 1,
2020, 6.00 PM): Total confirmed cases in India crosses 1637-mark, and the Death
Toll is 45. Total Active cases are 1444 and recovered cases are 148
The Indian Council of
Medical Research (ICMR) on Monday the 24th March 2020 warned that
introduction of a community transmission of Covid-19 cases may take anywhere
from a minimum of 20 days to a few months to be visible.
ICMR has highlighted
that the control of epidemic would be difficult in “pessimist" scenarios
in metropolitan cities such as Delhi, Mumbai, Kolkata, Bengaluru, Chennai,
Hyderabad and Kochi, if people who have a travel history to infected countries
or contact with the infect don’t isolate themselves.
The study said measures
would be insufficient to delay the outbreak by weeks or longer. “Once the virus
establishes transmission within the community, quarantine of symptomatic may
have a meaningful impact on disease burden. As a public health measure, health
system and community preparedness would be critical to control any impending
spread of Covid-19 in the country," the study concluded.
The ICMR scientists have
said that in order to have an appreciable effect on delaying the establishment
of transmission of Covid-19 in India, airport arrival screening will need to
have near-complete capture of incoming Covid-19 cases, including asymptomatic
cases.
For a detailed study of
above report please click on the following link:
https://www.livemint.com/news/india/introduction-of-community-transmission-of-covid-19-likely-in-india-icmr-study-11584992557087.html
What does this pandemic mean for the global economy? How is this affecting the economy? And, how is this impacting Indian markets?
Before reading in detail
about the impact, first, let us study about coronavirus. WHO
is working closely with global experts, governments, and other health
organisations to provide advice to the countries about precautionary and
preventive measures.
What is Corona Virus?
Coronaviruses are a large family of viruses which may
cause illness in animals or humans. In humans, several coronaviruses are
known to cause respiratory infections ranging from the common cold to more
severe diseases such as Middle East Respiratory Syndrome (MERS) and Severe
Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS). The most recently discovered coronavirus
causes coronavirus disease COVID-19.
What is COVID -19?
COVID-19 is the infectious disease caused by the most
recently discovered coronavirus. This new virus and disease were unknown before
the outbreak began in Wuhan, China, in December 2019.
What are Symptoms of COVID – 19?
The most common symptoms of COVID-19 are fever, tiredness,
and dry cough. Some patients may have aches and pains, nasal congestion, runny
nose, sore throat or diarrhea. These symptoms are usually mild and begin
gradually. Some people become infected but don’t develop any symptoms and don't
feel unwell. Most people (about 80%) recover from the disease without needing
special treatment. Around 1 out of every 6 people who gets COVID-19 becomes
seriously ill and develops difficulty breathing. Older people, and those with
underlying medical problems like high blood pressure, heart problems or
diabetes, are more likely to develop serious illness. People with fever, cough
and difficulty breathing should seek medical attention.
How does COVID-19 Spreads?
People can catch COVID-19 from others who have the virus.
The disease can spread from person to person through small droplets from the
nose or mouth which are spread when a person with COVID-19 coughs or exhales.
These droplets land on objects and surfaces around the person. Other people
then catch COVID-19 by touching these objects or surfaces, then touching their
eyes, nose or mouth. People can also catch COVID-19 if they breathe in droplets
from a person with COVID-19 who coughs out or exhales droplets. This is why it
is important to stay more than 1 meter (3 feet) away from a person who is sick.
WHO is assessing ongoing research on the ways COVID-19 is
spread and will continue to share updated findings.
Can the virus that causes COVID-19 be transmitted through
the air?
Studies to date suggest that the virus that causes
COVID-19 is mainly transmitted through contact with respiratory droplets rather
than through the air. See previous answer on “How does COVID-19 spread?”
Can COVID-19 be caught from a person who has no symptoms?
The main way the disease spreads is through respiratory
droplets expelled by someone who is coughing. The risk of catching COVID-19
from someone with no symptoms at all is very low. However, many people with
COVID-19 experience only mild symptoms. This is particularly true at the early
stages of the disease. It is therefore possible to catch COVID-19 from someone
who has, for example, just a mild cough and does not feel ill. WHO is
assessing ongoing research on the period of transmission of COVID-19 and will
continue to share updated findings.
Can I catch COVID-19 from the feces of someone with the
disease?
The risk of catching COVID-19 from the feces of an
infected person appears to be low. While initial investigations suggest the
virus may be present in feces in some cases, spread through this route is not a
main feature of the outbreak. WHO is assessing ongoing research on the ways
COVID-19 is spread and will continue to share new findings. Because this is a
risk, however, it is another reason to clean hands regularly, after using the
bathroom and before eating.
How Can I Protect myself and prevent spread of disease?
Protection measures for everyone
Stay aware of the latest information on the COVID-19
outbreak, available on the WHO website and through your national and local
public health authority. Many countries around the world have seen cases of
COVID-19 and several have seen outbreaks. Authorities in China and some other
countries have succeeded in slowing or stopping their outbreaks. However, the
situation is unpredictable so check regularly for the latest news.
You can reduce your chances of being infected or spreading
COVID-19 by taking some simple precautions:
- Regularly
and thoroughly clean your hands with an alcohol-based hand rub or wash
them with soap and water.
Why? Washing your hands with soap and water or using alcohol-based hand rub kills viruses that may be on your hands. - Maintain
at least 1 metre (3 feet) distance between yourself and anyone who is
coughing or sneezing.
Why? When someone coughs or sneezes they spray small liquid droplets from their nose or mouth which may contain virus. If you are too close, you can breathe in the droplets, including the COVID-19 virus if the person coughing has the disease. - Avoid
touching eyes, nose and mouth.
Why? Hands touch many surfaces and can pick up viruses. Once contaminated, hands can transfer the virus to your eyes, nose or mouth. From there, the virus can enter your body and can make you sick. - Make
sure you, and the people around you, follow good respiratory hygiene. This
means covering your mouth and nose with your bent elbow or tissue when you
cough or sneeze. Then dispose of the used tissue immediately.
Why? Droplets spread virus. By following good respiratory hygiene you protect the people around you from viruses such as cold, flu and COVID-19. - Stay
home if you feel unwell. If you have a fever, cough and difficulty
breathing, seek medical attention and call in advance. Follow the
directions of your local health authority.
Why? National and local authorities will have the most up to date information on the situation in your area. Calling in advance will allow your health care provider to quickly direct you to the right health facility. This will also protect you and help prevent spread of viruses and other infections.
·
Keep up to date on the latest
COVID-19 hotspots (cities or local areas where COVID-19 is spreading widely).
If possible, avoid traveling to places – especially if you are an older
person or have diabetes, heart or lung disease.
Why? You have a higher chance of catching COVID-19 in one of these areas.
Why? You have a higher chance of catching COVID-19 in one of these areas.
Protection measures for persons who are in or have
recently visited (past 14 days) where COVID-19 is spreading:
- Follow
the guidance outlined above (Protection measures for everyone)
- Self-isolate
by staying at home if you begin to feel unwell, even with mild symptoms
such as headache, low grade fever (37.3 C or above) and slight runny nose,
until you recover. If it is essential for you to have someone bring you
supplies or to go out, e.g. to buy food, then wear a mask to avoid
infecting other people.
Why? Avoiding contact with others and visits to medical facilities will allow these facilities to operate more effectively and help protect you and others from possible COVID-19 and other viruses. - If you
develop fever, cough and difficulty breathing, seek medical advice
promptly as this may be due to a respiratory infection or other serious
condition. Call in advance and tell your provider of any recent travel or
contact with travelers.
Why? Calling in advance will allow your health care provider to quickly direct you to the right health facility. This will also help to prevent possible spread of COVID-19 and other viruses.
How Likely I am to Catch COVID-19?
The risk depends on where you are - and more specifically, whether there is
a COVID-19 outbreak unfolding there.
For most people in most locations the risk of catching COVID-19 is still
low. However, there are now places around the world (cities or areas) where the
disease is spreading. For people living in, or visiting, these areas the risk
of catching COVID-19 is higher. Governments and health authorities are taking
vigorous action every time a new case of COVID-19 is identified. Be sure to
comply with any local restrictions on travel, movement or large gatherings.
Cooperating with disease control efforts will reduce your risk of catching or
spreading COVID-19.
COVID-19 outbreaks can be contained and transmission stopped, as has been
shown in China and some other countries. Unfortunately, new outbreaks can
emerge rapidly. It’s important to be aware of the situation where you are or
intend to go. WHO publishes daily updates on the COVID-19 situation worldwide.
You can see these at https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019/situation-reports/
Is COVID-19 same as SARS?
No. The virus that causes COVID-19 and the one that caused the outbreak of
Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) in 2003 are related to each other
genetically, but the diseases they cause are quite different.
SARS was more deadly but much less infectious than COVID-19. There have
been no outbreaks of SARS anywhere in the world since 2003.
For more FAQ’s please click on the following link: https://www.who.int/news-room/q-a-detail/q-a-coronaviruses
What are the stages of Corona Virus
pandemic?
Stage 1: When cases are only
imported from affected countries and therefore only those who have travelled
abroad test positive. At this stage there is no spread of the disease
locally. China is the Country which has become the carrier of Corona
Virus. In India the carrier of Corona Virus were the tourists from Italy
who were found to be COVID-9 positive.
Stage 2: When there is local
transmission from infected persons. This will usually be relatives or
acquaintances of those who travelled abroad who test positive after close
contact with the infected person.
At this stage, fewer people are affected, the source of
the virus is known and is therefore easier to perform contact tracing and
contain the spread via self-quarantining. Countries like India are
currently in Stage 2.
Stage 3: This is the stage of community
transmission. In this stage those who have not been exposed to an infected
person or anyone who has a travel history to affected countries, still test
positive. In other words, people are unable to identify where they might
have picked up the virus from. Countries like Singapore, Italy and Spain
are currently in Stage 3. According to ICMR it is early to predict and
say that India has controlled the pandemic. According to Scientists when in
30% cases the source of spread of epidemic is not known then this leads to
Stage 3.
Stage 4: This is the worst stage
of the infection where it takes on the form of an epidemic. Massive numbers are
infected, and it is very difficult to control and contain the spread. Large no.
of people started collapsing. This is what China dealt with. In this stage the
illness may crop up again and again. Malaria and Dengue in India are such
epidemics.
Steps Taken by Government of India:
Government of India (GOI) has been taking several proactive preventive and mitigating measures starting with progressive tightening of international travel, issue of advisories for the members of the public, setting up quarantine facilities, contact tracing of persons infected by the virus and various social distancing measures. Several advisories have been issued to States and Union Territories (UTs) for taking necessary measures to contain the spread of this virus. Government have temporarily suspended metro and rail services as well as domestic air traffic.
Government of India (GOI) has been taking several proactive preventive and mitigating measures starting with progressive tightening of international travel, issue of advisories for the members of the public, setting up quarantine facilities, contact tracing of persons infected by the virus and various social distancing measures. Several advisories have been issued to States and Union Territories (UTs) for taking necessary measures to contain the spread of this virus. Government have temporarily suspended metro and rail services as well as domestic air traffic.
For
details please click on the following link: https://pib.gov.in/newsite/PrintRelease.aspx?relid=200655
A
Timeline of the Coronavirus Pandemic
The outbreak of
the virus, which began in Wuhan, China, has left tens of thousands sickened and
more than 16,000 people dead.
The World Health Organization has declared the coronavirus outbreak a
pandemic. People have adopted wearing masks, pictured on Feb. 11 in Hong Kong.r The New York
Times
The coronavirus, which surfaced in a Chinese
seafood and poultry market late last year, has spread to at least 166
countries, killing more
than 16,000 and sickening tens of thousands of people in a matter of weeks. The
World Health Organization has declared the situation a pandemic.
Here’s a
timeline of the outbreak so far.
DEC. 31
Chinese authorities treated dozens of cases of pneumonia
of unknown cause.
On Dec. 31, the government in Wuhan,
China, confirmed that
health authorities were treating dozens of cases. Days later, researchers in
China identified a new
virus that had
infected dozens of people in Asia. At the time, there was no evidence that the
virus was readily spread by humans. Health officials in China said they were
monitoring it to prevent the outbreak from developing into something more
severe.
China reported its first death.
On Jan. 11,
Chinese state media reported the first known death from an illness caused
by the virus, which had infected dozens of people. The 61-year-old man who died
was a regular customer at the market in Wuhan, and he had previously
been found to have abdominal tumors and chronic liver disease. The report of
his death came just before one of China’s biggest holidays, when hundreds of
millions of people travel across the country.
JAN. 20
Other countries, including the United States, confirmed
cases.
The first
confirmed cases outside mainland China occurred in Japan, South Korea and
Thailand, according to the World Health Organization’s first situation report. The first confirmed case in the United States came the
next day in Washington State, where a man in his 30s
developed symptoms after returning from a trip to Wuhan.
JAN. 23
Wuhan, a city of more than 11 million, was cut off by the
Chinese authorities.
Chinese authorities
suspended buses, subways and ferries within the city of Wuhan, pictured here
Feb. 3.
The Chinese
authorities closed off
Wuhan by canceling
planes and trains leaving the city, and suspending buses, subways and ferries
within it. At this point, at least 17 people had died and more than 570 others
had been infected, including in Taiwan, Japan, Thailand, South Korea and the
United States.
JAN. 30
The W.H.O. declared a global health emergency.
Amid thousands
of new cases in China, a “public health emergency of international concern” was
officially declared by the W.H.O. China’s Foreign
Ministry spokeswoman said that it would continue to work with the W.H.O. and
other countries to protect public health, and the U.S. State Department warned travelers to avoid
China.
JAN. 31
The Trump administration restricted travel from China
The Trump administration suspended entry into the United States
by any foreign nationals who had traveled to China in the past 14 days,
excluding the immediate family members of American citizens or permanent
residents. By this date, 213 people had died and nearly 9,800 had been infected worldwide.
FEB. 2
The first coronavirus death was reported outside China.
A 44-year-old
man in the Philippines died after being infected, officials said, the first death reported outside China.
By this point, more than 360 people had died.
FEB. 5
A cruise ship in Japan quarantined thousands.
Image
The Diamond Princess cruise
ship on Feb. 9Credit...Eugene Hoshiko/Associated Press
After a two-week
trip to Southeast Asia, more than 3,600 passengers began a quarantine aboard the Diamond
Princess cruise ship in Yokohama, Japan. Officials started screening
passengers, and the number of people who tested positive became the largest
number of coronavirus cases outside China. By Feb. 13, the number stood at 218.
FEB. 7
A Chinese doctor who tried to raise the alarm died.
Image
The death of Dr.
Li Wenliang provoked anger at how the Chinese government handled the epidemic.Credit...Tyrone
Siu/Reuters
When Dr. Li Wenliang, a Chinese doctor, died on Feb. 7 after contracting the
coronavirus, he was hailed as a hero by many for trying to ring early alarms
that a cluster of infections could spin out of control.
In early
January, the authorities reprimanded him, and he was forced to sign a statement
denouncing his warning as an unfounded and illegal rumor. Dr. Li’s death provoked anger and
frustration at how the
Chinese government mishandled the situation by not sharing information earlier
and silencing whistle-blowers.
The disease the virus causes got a new name.
The World Health
Organization on Feb. 11 proposed an official name for the disease the virus
coronavirus causes: Covid-19, an acronym that stands for
coronavirus disease 2019. The name makes no reference to any of the people,
places, or animals associated with the coronavirus, given the goal to avoid
stigma.
By the next day,
the death toll in China had reached 1,113 and the total number of confirmed
cases rose to 44,653. There were 393 cases outside of China, in 24 countries.
FEB. 13
There were more than 14,000 new cases in Hubei Province.
Officials
added more than 14,840
new cases to the
total number of infected in Hubei Province, and the ruling Communist
Party ousted top officials there. The
new cases set a daily record, coming after officials in Hubei seemed to be
including infections that were diagnosed by using lung scans of symptomatic
patients.
FEB. 14
France announces the first coronavirus death in Europe.
Image
Tourists at the
Eiffel Tower. A Chinese tourist who had been hospitalized in the city since
Jan. 25 died in Paris on Feb. 14.Credit...Gonzalo
Fuentes/Reuters
An 80-year-old
Chinese tourist died on Feb. 14 at a hospital in Paris,
in what was the first coronavirus death outside Asia, the authorities said. It
was the fourth death from the virus outside mainland China, where about 1,500
people had died, most of them in Hubei Province.
FEB. 17
Chinese officials draft legislation to curb the practice
of eating wildlife.
China said it
was reviewing its trade and consumption of wildlife, which has been identified
as a probable source of the outbreak. Officials drafted legislation that aims to end “the
pernicious habit of eating wildlife,” a statement from the Standing Committee
of the Congress said.
FEB. 19
Hundreds leave the quarantined cruise ship.
After a two-week
quarantine, 443 passengers
began leaving the
Diamond Princess cruise ship. It was the first day of a three-day operation to
offload people who tested negative for the virus and did not have symptoms.
Passengers who shared cabins with infected patients remained on the ship. A
total of 621 people aboard the ship were infected.
FEB. 21
A secretive church is linked to the outbreak in South
Korea.
Shincheonji
Church of Jesus, a secretive church in South Korea was linked to a surge of
infections in the
country. The number of confirmed cases in the country rose above 200, and more
than 400 other church members reported potential symptoms, health officials said.
As a result, the
government shut down thousands of kindergartens, nursing homes and community
centers, and put a stop to political rallies in the capital, Seoul.
FEB. 21
The virus appears in Iran from an unknown source.
On Feb. 19, Iran
announced two coronavirus cases in the country, then hours later said that both
patients had died. Two days later, Iran announced two additional deaths. The source of the virus in
Iran is unknown. By Feb. 20, the number of global cases had risen to nearly
76,000, according to the W.H.O.
FEB. 23
Italy sees major surge in coronavirus cases and officials
lock down towns.
Europe faced
its first major
outbreak as the
number of reported cases in Italy grew from fewer than five to more than 150.
In the Lombardy region, officials locked down 10 towns after a cluster of cases
suddenly emerged in Codogno, southeast of Milan. As a result, schools closed
and sporting and cultural events were canceled.
FEB. 24
The Trump administration asks Congress for $1.25 billion
for coronavirus response.
As the number of
coronavirus cases around the globe continued to climb, the Trump administration
began preparing for the virus to arrive in the United States. The White
House asked Congress to
allocate $1.25 billion in new emergency funds to bolster its preparedness — a significant
escalation in the administration’s response. At this point the United States,
where Centers for
Disease Control and Prevention officials warned of an almost certain outbreak, had 35 confirmed cases and
no deaths.
FEB. 24
Iran emerges as a second focus point of the virus.
Iran said it
had 61 coronavirus
cases and 12
deaths, more than any other country but China, and public health experts warned
that Iran was a cause for worry — its borders are crossed each year by millions
of religious pilgrims, migrant workers and others. Cases in Iraq, Afghanistan,
Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Lebanon, the United Arab Emirates and one in Canada,
have been traced back to Iran.
FEB. 26
Latin America reports its first coronavirus case.
Brazilian health officials said that a 61-year-old
São Paulo man, who had returned recently from a business trip to Italy, tested
positive for the coronavirus. It was the first known case in Latin America.
Officials also began tracking down other passengers on the flight the man took
to Brazil and others who had contact with him in recent days.
FEB. 28
The number of infections in Europe spikes.
Italy, where 800
people had been infected by Feb. 28, remained an area of concern. Cases in 14 other
countries, including Northern Ireland and Wales, could be traced back to Italy.
Germany had nearly 60 cases by Feb. 27, and France reported 57, more than
triple the number from two days earlier. Both England and Switzerland reported
additional cases, while Belarus, Estonia and Lithuania all reported their first
infections.
FEB. 28
Sub-Saharan Africa records its first infection.
Nigeria,
Africa’s most populous nation, confirmed its first case of coronavirus on Feb.
28. The patient was an Italian citizen who had returned to Lagos from Milan.
FEB. 29
The United States records its first coronavirus death and
announces travel restrictions.
A patient near
Seattle became the first coronavirus patient to die in the United States on Feb. 28. As the number of
global cases rose to nearly 87,000, the Trump administration issued its highest-level
warning, known as a “do
not travel” warning, for areas in Italy and South Korea most affected by the
virus. The government also banned all travel to Iran and barred entry to any
foreign citizen who had visited Iran in the previous 14 days.
MARCH 3
U.S. officials approve widespread coronavirus testing.
The C.D.C. lifted all federal
restrictions on testing
for the coronavirus on March 3, according to Vice President Mike Pence. The
news came after the C.D.C.’s first attempt to produce a diagnostic test
kit fell flat. By this point, the
coronavirus had infected more than 90,000 around the globe and killed about
3,000, according to the
W.H.O.
MARCH 11
President Trump blocks most visitors from continental Europe.
In a prime-time
address from the Oval Office, Mr. Trump said he would halt travelers from
European countries other than Britain for 30 days, as the World Health Organization declared
the coronavirus a pandemic and stock markets plunged further.
MARCH 13
President Trump declares a national emergency.
Mr. Trump
officially declared a
national emergency, and said he
was making $50 billion in federal funds available to states and territories to
combat the coronavirus. He also said he would give hospitals and doctors more
flexibility to respond to the virus, including making it easier to treat people
remotely.
MARCH 15
The C.D.C. recommends no gatherings of 50 or more people
in the U.S.
On March 15, the
C.D.C. advised no
gatherings of 50 or
more people in the United States over the next eight weeks. The recommendation
included weddings, festivals, parades, concerts, sporting events and conferences.
The following day, Mr. Trump advised citizens to avoid groups of more than 10. New
York City’s public schools system, the nation’s largest with 1.1 million
students, also announced that it
would close.
MARCH 16
Latin America begins to feel the affects of the virus.
Several
countries across Latin America imposed restrictions on their citizens to slow the spread of the virus.
Venezuela announced a nationwide quarantine that began on March 17. Ecuador and
Peru implemented countrywide lockdowns, while Colombia and Costa Rica closed
their borders. However, Jair Bolsonaro, the president of Brazil, encouraged
mass demonstrations by his supporters against his opponents in congress.
MARCH 17
France imposes a nationwide lockdown.
On March 17,
France imposed a
nationwide lockdown, prohibiting
gatherings of any size and postponing the second round its municipal elections.
The lockdown was one of Europe’s most stringent. While residents were told to
stay home, officials allowed people to go out for fresh air but warned that
meeting a friend on the street or in a park would be punishable with a fine. By
this time, France had more than 6,500 infections with more than 140
deaths, according to the
W.H.O.
MARCH 17
The E.U. bars most travelers from outside the bloc for 30
days.
European
leaders voted to close off
at least 26 countries to nearly
all visitors from the rest of the world for at least 30 days. The ban on
nonessential travel from outside the bloc was the first coordinated response to
the epidemic by the European Union.
MARCH 19
For the first time, China reports zero local infections.
China on March
19 reported no new local
infections for the
previous day, a milestone in the ongoing fight against the pandemic. The news
signaled that an end to China’s epidemic could be in sight.
However, experts
said the country would need to see at least 14 consecutive days without new
infections for the outbreak to be considered over. And the announcement did not
mean that China recorded no new coronavirus cases. Officials said that 34 new
cases had been confirmed among people who had arrived in China from elsewhere.
MARCH 21
Companies move to produce medical supplies.
On March 21, the
White House said that American companies were increasing efforts to restock hospitals with important supplies.
Hanes and General Motors agreed to make masks and ventilators. Christian
Siriano, a fashion designer, Dov Charney, the founder of Los Angeles Apparel,
and Karla Colletto, a swimwear company, all agreed to repurpose their
operations to create
masks and hospital garments.
MARCH 21
Hawaii’s governor orders a mandatory 14-day quarantine to
arriving visitors and residents.
Gov. David Ige of
Hawaii ordered a
mandatory 14-day quarantine for everyone arriving in Hawaii, including tourists and returning
residents. Mr. Ige called his order the first of its kind in the nation.
MARCH 23
Prime Minister Boris Johnson locks Britain down.
The lockdown closed all nonessential
shops, barred
meetings of more than two people, and required all people to stay in their
homes except for trips for food or medicine. Those who disobey risked being
fined by the police.
MARCH 24
The Tokyo Olympics delayed until 2021.
Officials
announced that the Summer Olympics in Tokyo would be postponed for one year. Only three previous Games had been canceled, all because
of war: The 1916 Summer Olympics were canceled because of World War I, and the
Summer and Winter Games were canceled in 1940 and 1944 because of World War II.
MARCH 24
India, a country of 1.3 billion, announces a 21-day
lockdown.
One day after
the authorities halted all domestic flights, Narendra Modi, India’s prime
minister, declared a 21-day lockdown. While the number of reported cases in
India was about 500, the prime minister pledged to spend about $2 billion on
medical supplies, isolation rooms, ventilators and training for medical
professionals.
March 26
Extraordinary
Virtual G20 Leaders’ Summit on COVID-19
Addressing the Extraordinary
Summit on COVID-19, chaired by King Salman of Saudi Arabia, the WHO
Director-General called on G20 leaders to fight, unite, and ignite against
COVID-19.
IMPACT
OF COVID-19 ON GLOBAL AS WELL AS INDIAN ECONOMY
“From an
economic perspective, the key issue is not just the number of cases of
COVID-19, but the level of disruption to economies from containment measures,”
Ben May, head of global macro research at Oxford Economics, said in a report
this week.
“Widespread
lockdowns such as those imposed by China have been enacted in some virus
hotspots,” he said, adding that such measures — if taken disproportionately —
could induce panic and weaken the global economy even more.
Fears of
the coronavirus impact on the global economy have rocked markets worldwide,
plunging stock prices and bond yields.
- Several Industries have been adversely impacted due
to Spread of COVID-19.
- Large no. of Supply Chains are affected due to
COVID-19
- Global Economy is grinding to a Halt
How does the Pandemic Affects the Global Economy?
Things
are moving fast with the COVID-19 novel coronavirus. On March 12 WHO declared
that the virus is now a pandemic and President Trump announced 30 day ban on
all travel from EU to the US.
If the
virus spread continues the Analysts fear that the Global Economy may slip into
recession. If the Economy slips into recession it will slip for two consecutive
quarters i.e. six months period.
As on
date no one is sure about the longevity and length of the virus.
International
Monetary Fund (IMF) has estimated the Global GDP to slip to 1.6% in 2020 from
2.09% in 2019. The outbreak could cost the Global economy upto $2 trillion this
year. Recession in some countries will bring Global Economic Growth to touch below
2.5%.
In order
to deal with COVID 19 and outbreak OPEC has proposed to curb oil output.The
price of Oil has fallen by about a quarter. Demand for fuel is also expected to
decline.
Rabobank
which is a Multinational Banking and Financial services Co. has said “ Global
Recession is Certain”.
Hugo Erken Head of International Economics, Raphie Hayat
Senior Economist and Kan Ji have submitted the study report/article on the
impact of COVID-19 on the Indian Economy, In Bloomberg Quint on March 13,2020
in an article “CORONAVIRUS: The Economic Impact of COVID-19 on India.”
In the study Hugo & team
conducted a scenario analysis to be able to gauge the global impact of
COVID-19. They have made assumptions for two scenarios:
In the first scenario
which was the baseline scenario, there will be heavy output losses in
China and certain other countries – South Korea and Italy- where the virus has
spread substantially, but the downturn in economic activity will remain limited
in countries where the virus is not yet spread.
The second scenario
is a risk scenario in which the global spread of the infection sharply
increases, with countries where the outbreak is currently limited facing a
corona epidemic as well – thus a full grown pandemic.
They have used the two economic models
viz. Macro-econometric global trade model and a Productivity model
specifically developed for the Chinese economy by RaboResearch to calculate the
impact.
While making calculations they
had made the following assumptions:
First: Temporary Drop in the number of hours worked per worker to capture the effect of the lockdown in Hubei/Wuhan and Italy.
Second: That People will work overtime in the second half of calendar year 2020 to deal with the backlog of orders.
First: Temporary Drop in the number of hours worked per worker to capture the effect of the lockdown in Hubei/Wuhan and Italy.
Second: That People will work overtime in the second half of calendar year 2020 to deal with the backlog of orders.
Third: Expect adverse effects on
private consumption as the virus outbreak will negatively affect consumer
behaviour in many countries. Purchases will be postponed or even cancelled.
Hence they have sharply reduced private consumption in countries facing
COVID-19.
Fourth: Cross-border trade will
become cumbersome and more expensive. Higher costs will have the same effect as
temporary non-tariff trade barriers. Temporary relative decline in exports to
China will be there.
Final assumption made was on
exchange rates, investment premiums – to capture adverse investors sentiment
and financial market volatility – and mitigating government policies,
especially in China.
In the Pandemic scenario they
have observed that there will be permanent damage to Chinese Economy in terms
of adverse productivity effects.
OBSERVATIONS OF THE STUDY:
Baseline
Scenario Expectation:
Substantial slowdown of global
economic growth due to COVID-19. The global growth in Current Year 2020 will
arrive at 1.6 % which is substantially lower than the OECD forecast of 2.4 %
and the Bloomberg consensus at the start of March of 2.7 %. Pre-Corona forecast
for Global forecast was 2.9 %.
China as the epicentre is expected to face the most
detrimental economic impact slowing down to 2.4% in CY2020 which is much lower
than pre-corona forecast.
For India they have projected growth of 5.3 % in CY
2020 with COVID-19 shaving off 0.4 % points compared to pre-corona situation of
5.7% because India has limited ties with Chinese economy. Hence the shock wave
that China is sending across Globe is affecting India to a lesser extent than
many other countries in Asia. Vietnam is the largest exporter to China with
13.6% as against India at 0.6%. Similarly Chinese Tourism of Thailand is 5.9%
as against India’s 0.2%.
In India the global virus
outbreak had the largest economic impact on the rupee which has depreciated
substantially at the back of global risk-off sentiments and anxiety among investors.
The study reveals that the currencies of emerging markets and the prices of raw
materials to continue to be highly volatile in the coming period.
Risk Scenario
Impact:
India is susceptible to a rapid spread of the virus
due to high population density combined with less no. of health care services
compared to western countries. The average no. of hospital and beds and doctors
per 1000 Indians is 0.7 and 0.8 respectively compared to 5.6 and 3.6 in EU. Depending
on the containment measures being taken by Indian Government in the situation
of struggling Indian economy the expansion of virus will remain to be seen. Globally
the spread of infection will sharply increase, including India.
The study shows that the global
economy would slow down to 0.7 % in CY 2020 and the Indian economy would grow
by 3.6 % which would make 2020 even worse than from an economic perspective.
The study also
reveals that India could Benefit in the Medium Term. International firms have
found out the hard way just how vulnerable their globally integrated supply
chains are. The disruption of international trade may prompt international
businesses to diversify their production across several countries including
India. India might even benefit in the medium term, because firms want to rely
less on China as their only manufacturing hub and shift (part of) their
production to other countries, such as India. This is the reason why the study
expects a relatively profound rebound of economic growth in 2021 and beyond.
How is this affecting the Economy?
With the people engaged at the desk with outer world
and avoid work fitness and entertainment will result in lesser economic
activity.
Businesses are now facing the challenge of disrupted
supply of components to make their products. They have to take into account the
huge no. of quarantine work force & factory that ar being shut.
Indian economy is "remarkably unscathed", while major
economies across the globe is grappling with "severe fallout" due to
the surge of coronavirus cases, according to Chinese state-run media.
How does this impact the Indian Markets?
India’s economy has already been suffering
from a slow down in the recent past. Moody’s has downgraded India’s growth to
5.3% in 2020 due to downside risks of Covid-19, the slowest in 11 years.
According to an economist, ‘The supply side contagion effect’ will impact
manufacturing, agriculture and the pharmaceutical industry. Coronavirus has
brought various segments to stand still.
Sectors like tourism, aviation,
hospitality and trade will face the first set of challenges; other sectors too
will face the cyclic effect. The following Sectors will be affected due to
COVID-19: -
Chemical Industry
Shipping Industry
Auto Industry
Pharmaceutical Industry
Textile Industry
Solar Power Sector
Electronics Industry
IT Industry
Tourism and Aviation
IT Industry
Tourism and Aviation
When Chinese supply will shut down Indian
Pharmaceuticals, automobile and Mobile Industries immediately will face jolts.
India depends on China for supply of components for the products that these
sectors make.
Pesticides sector will also be affected.
The gems and jewellery exports are expected to witness a
sharp decline in March as well as in the first quarter of the next fiscal due
to disruptions caused by the Coronavirus outbreak, according to a report. Indian Gems and
Jewellery makers are expecting a loss of about $1 billion.
Even the software industry is making slow progress.
There
has been an impact on the sports and entertainment industry as well
-International Olympic Games committee decided to postpone the 2020 Olympics Summer Games to July 23rd 2021.
-Indian Premier League(IPL) has been postponed.
-Euro 2020 soccer tournament postponed until 2021 due to coronavirus pandemic.
-National Collegiate Athletic Association (NCAA) — the main U.S. sanctioning body for college athletics announced that all remaining championship events for the 2019–20 academic year would be cancelled entirely.
-British Universities and Colleges Sport, the UK organisation for university sport, announced that all fixtures from 17 March to 1 April would not take place
-International Olympic Games committee decided to postpone the 2020 Olympics Summer Games to July 23rd 2021.
-Indian Premier League(IPL) has been postponed.
-Euro 2020 soccer tournament postponed until 2021 due to coronavirus pandemic.
-National Collegiate Athletic Association (NCAA) — the main U.S. sanctioning body for college athletics announced that all remaining championship events for the 2019–20 academic year would be cancelled entirely.
-British Universities and Colleges Sport, the UK organisation for university sport, announced that all fixtures from 17 March to 1 April would not take place
Entertainment
Mass Media has also taken a Hit. Cinema Halls throughout the country have been
closed. Release of new Indian Movies have been stopped.
Industry body CII said that more than half of
the tourism and hospitality industry can go sick
About 136 million workers in India, or over
half the total workers employed in non-agricultural sectors, have no contracts
and remain the most vulnerable in the aftermath of the corona outbreak and may lose
their job.
Demand
for Medical Supplies, Soaps, Hand Sanitisers to be stepped at home. Amid serious concerns over
shortage of personal protection equipment’s for health workers, the government
has put ramped up domestic manufacturing of PPEs and medical equipment’s
including ventilators to meet the increasing demands.
If
the current situation persists Digital Shopping & Payments may increase
more.
Online
learning platforms too, are likely to get a boost with schools / Colleges
shutting down temporarily.
According to Dun & Bradstreet's
latest Economy Forecast, the probability of countries entering into recession
and companies going bankrupt has increased and India is not likely to
"remain decoupled" from the global meltdown. India's GDP growth is
expected to moderate further from our earlier estimate of 5 per cent for FY20,
it said.
On the price
scenario, slowdown in demand and production activities, a sharp fall in the
global price of crude oil, and price decreases in other major commodities such
as energy, base metals and fertilizers among others are expected to exert
downward pressure on inflation.
Phillip
Capital expects income losses of varied degree for individuals, corporate and
government, and sees need for stimulus for the economy.
SCENARIO-1
In case the situation worsens in India and
globally, there would be further selling in domestic stocks, and India’s GDP
growth may drop to 3.5-4 per cent levels even as the global economy slips into
recession, it said.
SCENARIO-2
In a rosy situation, the virus will be contained
in India, and the shutdown would not extend beyond April 15.
In such a case, “we would be gradual buyers in
equities. Indian economic impact will be limited and FY21 GDP target will be
4.5-5 per cent. But the March quarter impact will be severe,” Phillip Capital
said.
SCENARIO-3
In the third scenario, the virus will be
contained in India, but the crisis would worsen globally. In such a case,
Indian equities will outperform, and India’s GDP would grow at 4-4.5 per cent
amid a global recession.
SCENARIO-4
Lastly, if the situation is contained in India
and globally, Indian markets may outperform. “We will be aggressive buyers in
such a scenario at current levels. There would be manageable economic impact on
India and the global economic slowdown will last 3-5 months,” Phillip Capital
said.
Source/References: Worldometer, ICMR, WHO, NY Times, Bloomberg Quint, Economic Times, Daily Jagran, LiveMint, Business Standard, Financial Express, CNN, The Hindu Business Line, India Today, QZ.com
